Afreximbank projects 4% GDP growth for Africa in 2025

The pan-African multilateral financial institution, African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank), has projected the continent’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 4.0 percent despite the global economic fragility.

In its 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report released on Saturday, the bank projected that Africa’s real GDP would reach 4.1 percent in 2026 and 4.2 percent in 2027.

The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) provided an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance and projected the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to-medium term.

It highlighted the key macroeconomic and trade developments shaping Africa’s recovery and detailed opportunities for sustainable growth amid heightening global and domestic uncertainties.

The report said 41 percent of African economies would grow by at least five percent, nearly double the global rate of 21 percent, to reflect the continent’s expanding role as a driver of global growth.

According to the report, Africa’s gradual recovery would be supported by increased global demand for its exports, the disinflation trend, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify the economies.

The report said there were downside risks to the African economic outlook, including rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.

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It read: “Economic slowdown in the United States and China may also impact the international financial conditions and the demand for African resources.

“Internal conflicts and climate change threaten stability and growth.”

However, the report said potential upside risks include the anticipated decline in global interest rates, which would begin in 2025 if geopolitical uncertainty remained unchanged, potentially enhancing access to financing.

“Additionally, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to boost economic integration and intra-African trade, reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term,” it added.

To address potential downside risks, the report suggested several short-term strategies, which include adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance and enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions.

Other strategies include boosting domestic consumption alongside the service sector and accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement.

In the medium term, the report recommended a shift in strategies toward economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training within key emerging sectors.

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