Fact Check
FACT-CHECK: How true are X users’ claims on Bayelsa State budget, poverty, population figures?
Claim 1: Bayelsa State budgetary allocations for 2024 and 2025 are N489 billion and N689 billion respectively.
Claim 2: Bayelsa State has a population of 2.9 million people, with 2.6 million in extreme poverty.
Verdict: Two of the claims are true while the population figure remains inexact.
Full Text:
An X user recently made some claims on Bayelsa State budgets, its population and poverty rate in a tweet which has gained diverse comments.
One comment claims “money” from Bayelsa State is allocated for the development of Lagos State. “Meanwhile we can see where the money is going in Lagos”.
Ripples Nigeria observed that since President Bola Tinubu-led presidency proposed a Tax Reform Bill to the National Assembly, there has been public discourse on the potential of the bill being more beneficial to some regions at the expense of others. Some of the comments – like the above – under the recent tweets show similar sentiments.
The post has gained over one hundred thousand views, and about 2,000 engagement.
Verification:
Ripples Nigeria gathered that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douye Diri, recently presented a 2025 budget of N689.4 billion, christened the “Budget of ASSURED Prosperity,” to the State House of Assembly.
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The budget shows that N178.76 billion is earmarked for Works and Infrastructure, while Education will receive N35.85 billion. Other allocations include Urban and Housing Development (N13.68 billion), Energy and Power (N14.45 billion), Agriculture (N16.65 billion), Security (N19 billion), Healthcare (N19.19 billion), and Community Development (N10.2 billion).
Further checks revealed that the state’s 2024 budget was N480.9 billion.
“Population, poverty figure”
Generally, up-to-date record of Nigeria’s population is not available; the country last conducted census in 2006. There were four censuses pre-independence, and six after gaining independence in 1960. This is per the information on the National Population Census (NPC) website. Thus, there exist no accurate population data for the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
However, the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023 estimated the country’s population to be 216,783,381, per the NPC data.
The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that Bayelsa’s population recorded in the 2006 census was 1,704,515.
Also, on the state government official website, it disclosed that the state’s estimated population is 2,704,515+ or more than 2.7 million. Meanwhile, the most recent forecast by NPC and NBS put the state’s population at 2,277,961.
Furthermore, an NBS 2022 report, in the Multidimensional Poverty Index reveals that there are 2.61 million poor people in Bayelsa State, with incidence of Child MPI greater than 95% in the state.
The report noted that the state is among the poorest States in Nigeria — 133 million are poor in the whole country.
Conclusion:
Findings revealed that two of the claims are true, while there is no sufficient evidence to support the claim on population of Bayelsa State.
By: Quadri Yahya
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