OPINION: New World Order: Lee Kuan Yew’s hypothesis

*WHAT TIME IS IT?*
The world is at a historic inflection point, transitioning into a new world order. Today, I am on a mission to x-ray how the world’s ecdysis works, connect vital dots and form patterns, and to derive timeless, universal and useful principles that anyone can leverage while navigating the blizzards of change on the horizon. Just as snakes shed their old skin through the process of ecdysis to remove parasites and grow new skin, our world is currently undergoing a similar ‘molting moment’.

The world is radically and rapidly shifting in ways unprecedented in our lifetime, though not without parallels in history. History still rhymes with the signs of the times. Our exploration takes us back to the 17th century, a period when the concept of modern nation-states emerged following the Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Before this, it was the era of antagonistic states and kingdoms. Britain, for instance, transitioned from a kingdom to a country and eventually to an empire, and now, back to base. At its peak, she controlled nearly 75% of the world.

When Britain was the world’s “Kabiyesi” it monopolized the seven critical Levers of power: education, currency (with the pound sterling as the world’s reserve currency), trade, military might, high productivity, London as the world’s capital, and the “3Vs (voice, vote, and veto). Shortly before Britain’s dominance, the Dutch Empire thrived with the Dutch guilder. Though other great empires came, ruled and disappeared, none matched the British Empire in spread, size, or scope. The author, Lu Guanzhong was right: *‘’The empire long divided must unite, and long united must divide. Thus, it has ever been’’*

Since the end of WW2 on September 2, 1945, the United States has been the world’s de facto General Overseer (GO). The USSR, much like today’s Russia, was a military power but lacked economic dominance. Consequently, the world has been considerably “Americanised” using western democracy, globalization, trade, media, financial aid, blackmail, and, at times, military force in hawking and selling the American values. For example, less than half of the 99 internationally recognised states in 1945 were democratic, but today about167 countries practice democracy, courtesy of America.

Money was once “hard” meaning it was backed by gold under the British Empire. This changed on Sunday night, August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer honor its commitment to allow paper dollars to be exchanged for gold. With this singular broadcast, money became “soft or fiat”, devoid of equivalent gold backing. That decision granted America an unprecedented and unfair geopolitical advantage that continues to shape the global economy.

Today, the BRICS countries are pushing for de-dollarization, which is a move capable of reducing America to a glorified third-world country with nuclear weapons. China’s miraculous emergence as a strategic competitor to America seems to be altering the global power and wealth dynamics.

History appears poised to repeat itself. The fate of the world’s 8 billion people today highly hinges on seven state power bases and three significant non-state actors. These include the United States, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, India, Israel, Europe, the World Economic Forum (WEF), social media, and Elon Musk.

Recall that it was the irreconcilable global power struggles among the seven dominant state actors, Italy, France, Japan, the Soviet Union, America, Germany, and Great Britain that triggered WW2 between 1939 & 1945 resulting in the deaths of 60 million people.

Today, the potential triggers for World War III are evident such as:
China invades Taiwan.
Russia nukes Ukraine, Poland, or the United Kingdom.
Iran invades Saudi Arabia to establish Shia and oil dominance.
Pakistan invades India over the unfinished business of 1947 Kashmir dispute.
BRICS junks the dollar and adopts a new world reserve currency.
China attacks India over LAC control
And the mass spread of misinformation on social media, causing the False Flag resulting in nuclear Armageddon.

The current international landscape is shaped by strongmen with grand geopolitical ambitions to make their respective countries GREATER using unorthodox means, much like Adolf Hitler’s attempt in 1939 when he invaded Poland with a view to creating a Greater Germany.

Vladimir Putin’s desire to recreate the old Soviet Union (Greater Russia) has led to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pursuing a neo-Ottoman vision (Greater Turkey), evident in Turkey’s disruptive actions in the Middle East and Africa.
In Israel, Bibi (The Jews’ modern-day King David) envisions “Greater Israel” as seen in his military campaigns in the Middle East. Meanwhile, *Donald Trump, said , paraphrased, he will take over the Panama Canal and Greenland over by money or by military might and convert Canada to America’s 51st state* (Greater America agenda). Lastly, President Xi Jinping’s declaration that *no power can stop the annexation of Taiwan* underscores China’s pursuit of a “Greater China.”

*The world stands at a crossroads, shifting from Globalism to Trumpism with history and ambition colliding in a state of confusing political conundrums*.

The dynamics of today’s power triangulation differ slightly from those of the 1940s due to the emergence of non-state actors wielding considerable and often unaccountable power, such as the World Economic Forum (WEF), social media platforms, and Elon Musk, a private citizen who . metamorphosed to a Super Power overnight.The WEF’s influence on global politics and policies is concerning, profound and incomprehensible. WEF’s Young Global Leaders (YGL) has produced several Heads of Government. Elon Musk, on the other hand, represents a unique and unprecedented power base in modern geopolitics.The world has finally found the missing ‘’X’’ in Elon Musk!
As the world’s richest man, with a net worth exceeding $450 billion, Musk is on the trajectory to becoming the first trillionaire. By January 20, he is projected to become the second most powerful individual in America, and probably, in the world. Globally, if Twitter (now X) were considered a country, Musk, with 28 patents, would effectively be the president of the third most populous nation, with over 600 million monthly active users. In a paradox inexplicable, he has become the new MAINSTREAM MEDIA, his control over information is overwhelming.
Furthermore, Musk’s ventures extend beyond Earth. Through SpaceX, he holds the unique privilege of interacting with extraterrestrial possibilities (Aliens & Ghosts) and exploring uncharted territories in space. His influence on global politics is exemplified by his 2023 tweet suggesting that Ukraine cede Crimea to Russia, this is an idea that later became the official position of Trump’s envisioned 2025 administration.He has set Europe on fire from Germany to the UK, France, Canada, his love for the Far Right Movements is indescribable.

*The Trump-Musk nexus has triggered something of a renaissance within the Far Right Movements globally which will impact immigration negatively, especially against Africans* With Trump and Musk metaphorically positioned as the driver and conductor of the global limo tagged “TRUMUS limo” poses a significant gamble to geopolitics. The stakes are high, and the world watches with fingers crossed.

We are in a season of reimagining the global order amidst the welter of change and the interrelatedness of the forces of order and disorder. For instance, Caucasians are grappling with the irreversible decline of their aging, facing the reality of becoming a minority in their own countries by 2040. Simultaneously, concerns about de-globalization keep Beijing and Washington awake at night, while the threat of de-dollarization challenges America’s financial dominance. In Europe, the fear of Russia is the beginning of wisdom. For Africa, this is not the time for ‘’ostrich diplomacy’’. The continent must wake up and pursue her strategic agenda.

In the paragraphs that follow, we shall examine analogous historical moments to address pressing questions:

How solid are the blocks that hold BRICS together?

What is the probability of China replacing America as the new global superpower?

How will Trump 2.0 affect international relations?

Can Africa avoid a second wave of colonization?

Will humanity split along a new digital divide between rival tech empires?

What is the future of work, wealth and education?

Decoding geopolitics is akin to interpreting tea leaves, not always black and white. Which is why, to navigate this maze, I turn to the wisdom of Lee Kuan Yew (LKY), the ‘’Singaporean god’’ who transformed his country from a third-world nation to a first-world powerhouse in just 20 years. With the help of “Professor Google” I’ve set up a virtual conversation to seek his insights.

*Tim:* Compliments of the season, LKY. The world is aging, and it seems the Chinese dragon and the American bison are ready for a showdown. Meanwhile, Africa remains a passive spectator, and Nigeria remains enmeshed in multidimensional poverty. Can you share with me what you see in your geopolitical crystal ball in this transition hours?

*LKY:* Tim, it’s a pleasure having this virtual conversation with you. I can see your relentless effort (reading great books, digging into statistics and archives, interacting with Great Minds like Albert Einstein & Elon Musk) all with a view to making the world a better place. These are noble ideals, I must admit.
Your country, Nigeria, is one of the most blessed nations on earth. It appears God specially created America, China, and Nigeria on the same day as premium brands, late on a Friday night. *Unfortunately, while the American and Chinese elites stayed awake, watching God intently during the creation process, Nigeria’s elites went clubbing. They returned by 4:05 a.m., inebriated, sleepy, and unconscious, whereas God had completed His work by 4a.m.*
That, Tim, is why much of Nigeria’s wealth remains in the hands of foreigners who stayed vigilant on the Creation Day. You possess cobalt, nickel, lithium, Uranium, rare earth metals, oil, zircon, rhodium, liquefied natural gas (LNG) which are badly needed by the tech industry. Yet, many Nigerian elites remain clueless about the value of resources like the sands, stones and gravels which foreigners cart away daily from Nigeria.

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Tim, you must do more than critical thinking, writing, mentoring, and advocacy in order to prevent the country from descending into a state of unmanageable mega mess.
Nigeria is terminally ill, with inflation at almost almost 40%, bank interest rates on loans at 40%, electricity at 300% increase, gasoline at 500% increase, currency devaluation at almost 200%, all happened with 15 months, do you need any economist to tell you that Nigeria is on a life support machine. What keeps Nigeria alive are essentially the remittance economy and the increasing opportunities for ICT remote jobs for the Youths.
Singapore, with less than 1% of Nigeria’s resources, has a GDP per capita for 2024 estimated to be between $89,369.71 and $104,127, compared to Nigeria’s meagre $1,000.

Your leaders travel the world, cap in hand, begging for what your nation already has in abundance. Nigeria has been awaiting “Arab money” since 2023 to stabilize its foreign exchange. Chinese engineers are relied upon to fix your roads and railways, Indian investors are expected to revamp your oil & gas industry, Russian experts are tasked with completing the Ajaokuta Steel Mill, while your elites receive medical treatment in France, drink Italian wine and drive Japanese cars! ‘’Na wa o, Tim’’

Where is Nigeria’s national self-esteem? No nation has ever been built solely through the transplantation of external “kidneys”. China was built with Chinese kidneys; Japan was built with Japanese kidneys. What, then, is the purpose of education in Nigeria if everything the country needs is imported, and all its challenges are outsourced?
*For instance, against all odds, Ukraine in a dangerous war environment managed to grow in 2023. Its GDP increased by 5%, investments rose by 17%, tax revenue jumped by 25% year-over-year, and over 37,000 new businesses were registered*
Yet, Nigeria that is at peace with her neigbours still looks up to Ukraine for food!!! ‘’una well done o” in Nigeria’’!

*Tim:* Tell me, LKY, great empires typically last an average of 250 years. America is now 251 years old as a nation and 80 years old as a superpower. China is eyeing the position of world’s class captain. What’s next?

*LKY:* Hmm, Tim. Let us search for the truth amidst the forest of facts and figures. As of 2024, the size of China’s economy stood at $18.28 trillion, while America’s was $29.167 trillion. China’s national debt stands at $14.9 trillion as against America’s $36.1 trillion. America spent $860 billion on research and development (R&D) compared to China’s $668 billion. China’s manufacturing sector contributed 28% of global output, whereas America accounted for 18%. According to WIPO, China filed about 1.64 million patent applications in 2023 as against America’s 418,262.

In terms of the Global Innovation Index (GII), America ranked as the third most innovative country, after Switzerland and Sweden, while China was eighth. Numerically, China boasts the world’s largest army and navy, though both remain largely untested. On the other hand, America maintains 800 military bases across 70 countries and operates 12 supercarriers compared to China’s two active carriers.
Regarding military budgets in 2024, America spent $916 billion, while China spent $296 billion. In R&D investment as a percentage of GDP, Israel leads the world, with America ranking third and China eleventh. China’s greatest strength lies in its control of the global supply chain, as 40% of China’s GDP comes from value-added industrial output.

China’s ambition to build “One China” by reclaiming all annexed territories, starting with Taiwan, may be historically desirable but it would trigger World War III, a conflict that China cannot win.

*Peace is profitable, war is costly*. The “lost China” extends beyond Taiwan to territories in Russia (Outer Manchuria, 910,000 km²), Japan (the Senkaku Islands, about 330 km²), and India (the Line of Actual Control, stretching 3,488 km from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh).

Former President Deng Xiaoping understood the complications of reclaiming “China’s stolen lands” and thus developed the strategy of a *“Peaceful Rise”* If China’s main motivation is to control the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most consequential technology company with a market capitalization of $874 billion, the better route would be to emulate South Korea’s success in building a Samsung.

*Contextually, history shows that whoever wins the technology war wins the economic and military wars, in the ultimately analysis. Similarly, whoever is the best -in-class in innovation plus R&D wins the global technology game of throne. The new world order is a case of a prisoner’s dilemma- America knows she can’t control the wind, therefore, she is adjusting the sail of re-industrialization, reclaiming energy supremacy (Greenland has about 15% undiscovered hydrocarbons -oil and gas underground), sustaining her slim lead in Technology, especially in semiconductor by building a chip factory in Arizona in partnership with TSMC costing $6.6 billion under the new Chip and Science Act. Semiconductor is the Golden Fleece of technology power!*
Even then, it took America about 65 years (1880-1945) of consistent superior performance over Britain (the then superpower) before emerging as the world’s class captain. This indicates that for China to replace America, it must outperform America in all critical sectors for about half a century, ceteris paribus.

*Tim:* Can you tell me, LKY, where is BRICS headed? Nigeria is anxiously waiting to be admitted. The bloc represents 35% of the world’s GDP and 45% of the world’s population. BRICS seems determined to supplant the Dollar which currently accounts for about 56% of foreign trade invoices globally. Also, what’s the future of globalization?

*LKY*: *BRICS is going nowhere Period! Who are the policymakers in Nigeria advising President Tinubu to take Panadol for China and Russia’s headaches by joining BRICS? *What Nigeria is engaging in is “me-too diplomacy”*.
BRICS consists of traditional rivals with no shared ideology, values, or vision. The dollar’s main “offense” is its abuse by America, but who says BRICS will not eventually be hijacked, abused, and manipulated by China like RMB?

Why is BRICS not advocating for the replacement of the United Nations since she has failed to prevent the outbreak of wars in the world? The solution to Dollar’s abuse is to compel America and the rest of the world, through the United Nations and the World Bank to revert to the pre-Nixon era monetary system of 1971. Moving forward, America’s Bullion Depository in Fort Knox, Kentucky, must hold gold bars equivalent to the dollars it prints. The same principle should apply to China’s RMB and Europe’s EURO and others. The World Bank should be empowered to go round and verify the quantum of gold bars in each of the 200 countries in the world, to avoid a repeat of what happened in the past when America inflated its gold reserves. Consequently, there will be a gold rush which benefits Africa more than aligning with China to kill the Dollar. Africa needs to put mechanisms in place to stop illegal gold mining in her forests.
*Secondly, Africa should not waste the current currency crisis, it is an opportunity to create a single Africa currency to facilitate trade among the 52 Africa countries. About 23% of the global trade is done with Euro currency. With Africa owning over 30% of the remaining raw materials left globally, ‘’AFRO currency’’ is a game changer.*

India just pulled out of BRICS war against the dollar.

*If you give a gun each to China, Russia, India and America and lock them up in a room with an instruction that each of them should kill their worst two enemies: China will rather kill India and Russia first with a view to reclaiming her lost territories, while Russia will finish-off China and India first and India will annihilate China and Russia first. By the time you open the door, the last and the only country you will meet standing will be America*.
The other three nations have beefs to settle with one another which are more existential than the hatred they jointly have for America out of envy.

Globalization has not achieved its goal of creating a world of shared prosperity, rather, the income inequality between the global North and the emerging Global East vis-a-vis the Global South is growing bigger. Nonetheless, President Trump’s proposed ISOLATIONISM, in the name of ‘America First’ will be counterproductive. *Africa must maintain a delicate balance between globalism and Africanism.*

Made-in-China 2025 (MIC2025) was designed for the 8 billion world’s population; therefore, death of globalization connotes sudden death for China and slow death for America and ultimate death for the world at large.

*Concerning Trump 2.0 foreign policy, the world will be in commotion if President Trump goes ahead to annex the Panama Canal and Greenland with military force and overwhelm Canada to surrender her sovereignty. There will be no modicum of moral justification left to criticize Putin and President Xi Xiaoping if both, too, go ahead to annex Ukraine and Taiwan respectively Welcome to 1939?

Though, those three countries are ‘’BEST BUY’’ for America, provided there is unanimity of interests between the buyer and the owners.

Tim: What time is it? 3:00 a.m.
Where is LKY?
Unzipping 2025… with a dream!

AUTHOR: Tim Akano

Articles published in our Graffiti section are strictly the opinion of the writers and do not represent the views of Ripples Nigeria or its editorial stand.

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